H21: slow start recovered and close

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: slow away last time, got back into it and finished within 5 lengths. Looks unlucky; is it a habit?

The rule

last_slow_start = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

Reads: last_slow_start, last_recovered, last_position, last_beaten_lengths

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_slow_start = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat up to a mile",
    "rule": "(last_slow_start = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND (race_type = 'Flat' AND distance_yards <= 1790)"
  },
  {
    "name": "slow in 2+ of last 3",
    "rule": "(last_slow_start = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND (slow_starts_last3 >= 2)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info slow in 2+ of last 3 · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

269

A/E

1.11

winners vs the prices

SP return

-15.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-6.5%

266 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 16.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H21-slow-start-recovered-and-close Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [slow in 2+ of last 3] AMBER A/E 1.11 on 269 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H21-slow-start-recovered-and-close (slow in 2+ of last 3): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H21-slow-start-recovered-and-close (Flat up to a mile): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H21-slow-start-recovered-and-close (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H21-slow-start-recovered-and-close: H21: slow start recovered and close (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.