Hypotheses · seasonal · H22-horse-for-the-season
H22: horse for the season
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.016 on 52913 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H22: horse for the season” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Two or more earlier wins at this time of year (this month or either side), and at least half its wins.
The rule
month_wins >= 2 AND month_wins * 2 >= prior_wins
Reads: month_wins, prior_wins
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
month_wins >= 2 AND month_wins * 2 >= prior_wins
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 52,913
- A/E
- 1.02
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -17.3%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +3.2%
- 10,962 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 14.3%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H22-horse-for-the-season Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.016 on 52913 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H22-horse-for-the-season (broad): info
· importer
New idea H22-horse-for-the-season: H22: horse for the season (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.