Gallops research lab

Hypotheses

Every idea the lab has held, alive or dead: from its agents, from Gary, and from the archive of earlier hand-run studies. Click a column to sort, or a title for its lab notebook. A/E is winners against what the prices expected on its discovery data; 1.00 is the market.

SearchStageFamilySourceClear

40 of 40 matching hypotheses


System: Lightly raced four-year-old back after a winter offSYS-four-year-old-returns-after-a-win · seasonal · Imported from the published systems	LIVE	–	–	Imported from the published systems	15 Oct 2026
All early-spring Flat handicap returners: a calendar effect rival to the four-year-old storyH-5167b372 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	SHADOWamber	1,424	1.09	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Early-spring four-year-old returners: the lift sits in March and April, before the crop is knownH-2d115a58 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	SHADOWamber	322	1.29	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Fancied lightly raced four-year-old returners: the market flags which ones are readyH-1a6f83c9 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	SHADOWgreen	337	1.21	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Lightly raced four-year-old returners whose mark was raised: improvers the market doubtsH-568b7703 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	SHADOWamber	41	1.38	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Lightly raced four-year-old returners on the all-weather: is the edge really turf-only?H-b05a33c3 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	SHADOWamber	140	1.18	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Lightly raced four-year-olds back from the winter on turf onlyH-29eb96fe · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	SHADOWgreen	379	1.20	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
H126: lightly raced four year old returnsH126-lightly-raced-four-year-old-returns · seasonal · Imported from the overnight batches	PROMISINGgreen	1,904	1.13	Imported from the overnight batches	15 Oct 2026
H31: back on the all weather in winterH31-back-on-the-all-weather-in-winter · seasonal · Imported from the overnight batches	PROMISINGamber	675	1.11	Imported from the overnight batches	15 Oct 2026
H60: second season chaser freshH60-second-season-chaser-fresh · seasonal · Imported from the overnight batches	PROMISINGgreen	1,102	1.11	Imported from the overnight batches	15 Oct 2026
Turf-to-all-weather handicap returners after 150+ days beat their prices in any monthH-98ae1db9 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDfailed the vaultamber	654	1.23	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Dose-response: turf-to-AW handicap switchers after a 61-149 day gap sit between the short- and long-gap liftsH-f00f8c45 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDred	1,036	0.99	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Rival: turf-to-AW switchers that are not dropping in class are fairly priced, so a class drop drives the liftH-f370f2f4 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDamber	3,797	1.08	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Rival: turf-to-AW switchers after a short gap carry the same lift, so the layoff is irrelevantH-e2d31d3d · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDgreen	4,045	1.07	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
All-weather spring returners carry the calendar lift, not turf returnersH-ce91b64d · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDamber	480	1.20	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Long-priced early-spring handicap returners are over-bet: the 16/1+ tail needs the runH-5ad83d6a · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDred	563	0.74	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Non-four-year-old second-tier spring returners: age control inside the 3/1–7/1 bandH-1369adb4 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDgreen	333	1.17	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Second-tier fancied spring handicap returners (3/1 to 7/1) beat their prices at any ageH-12ef9cb4 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDamber	473	1.08	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Fancied spring returners in non-handicaps are priced right: the lift needs a handicap markH-0b35ec92 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDred	536	1.00	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Rival: short-priced spring handicap returners pay at any age, so H126's short band is not about four-year-oldsH-71a94a07 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDamber	141	1.10	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Lightly raced spring handicap returners that won last time, at age three or fourH-5998bc20 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDamber	185	1.27	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Lightly raced three-year-old spring returners: is the mispricing only for four-year-olds?H-b2362b70 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDred	640	1.03	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
May four-year-old returners: the late end of the window carries no edgeH-cbe10008 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDamber	197	1.06	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Long-priced four-year-old handicap returners: is the 16/1+ tail priced right?H-0078ee33 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDred	182	0.99	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Lightly raced older handicappers back from a break: a powered age controlH-2fa8d5cc · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDred	119	0.64	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Short-priced first-time-out four-year-olds: rival to the handicap-mark storyH-3c53e905 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDgreen	251	1.18	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Lightly raced four-year-old returners in Flat non-handicaps: progress the market doubts, with no mark involvedH-1a3e129f · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDgreen	182	1.07	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Irish lightly raced four-year-old returners in spring handicaps are fully pricedH-52d3c28e · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDamber	135	1.35	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Exposed four-year-olds back from the winter in spring handicaps: is light racing the cause?H-ee2c7a96 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDred	191	0.80	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Lightly raced three-year-olds on their first run after the winter in handicapsH-3449e2e4 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDred	568	1.04	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Lightly raced four-year-old returns whose mark has not been raisedH-d1543740 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDred	151	0.95	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Fewest prior runs: the mark has the least informationH-625f1f2d · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDamber	218	1.18	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Second run after the winter break for lightly raced four-year-oldsH-3cdb61f5 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDamber	459	1.06	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
Lightly raced five-year-olds back from a break: is age the cause?H-ef8fb404 · seasonal · Investigator agent, v1	KILLEDred	89	0.76	Investigator agent, v1	16 Oct 2026
H09: yard targets this monthH09-yard-targets-this-month · seasonal · Imported from the overnight batches	KILLEDred	57,168	0.98	Imported from the overnight batches	15 Oct 2026
H111: unexposed three year old in autumn handicapsH111-unexposed-three-year-old-in-autumn-handicaps · seasonal · Imported from the overnight batches	KILLEDred	19,912	1.02	Imported from the overnight batches	15 Oct 2026
H125: second season hurdler freshH125-second-season-hurdler-fresh · seasonal · Imported from the overnight batches	KILLEDamber	285	1.07	Imported from the overnight batches	15 Oct 2026
H22: horse for the seasonH22-horse-for-the-season · seasonal · Imported from the overnight batches	KILLEDred	52,913	1.02	Imported from the overnight batches	15 Oct 2026
H29: fresh for the springH29-fresh-for-the-spring · seasonal · Imported from the overnight batches	KILLEDred	7,166	1.01	Imported from the overnight batches	15 Oct 2026
H30: hard winter campaignH30-hard-winter-campaign · seasonal · Imported from the overnight batches	KILLEDred	3,082	0.98	Imported from the overnight batches	15 Oct 2026

Loading hypotheses…

What the badges mean

RESEARCH: An idea being designed or measured. Not evidence of anything yet.
PROMISING: Passed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.
FROZEN: Survived the attacks. Locked by hash, waiting for its one sealed holdout query.
PROVISIONAL: Passed the holdout after false-discovery control. Not yet proven on new races.
SHADOW: Tracked privately on races after its freeze. Not a recommendation.
VALIDATED: Its forward record on unseen races cleared the bar set before it started.
LIVE: Published as a system, by a human.
KILLED: Failed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.