H29: fresh for the spring

Mechanism and rationale

Jumps, March-April: at most two runs in the last 150 days, so not ground down by a winter campaign.

The rule

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (3, 4) AND runs_150 <= 2 AND prior_runs >= 3 AND days_since_last_run <= 60

Reads: race_type, month, runs_150, prior_runs, days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (3, 4) AND runs_150 <= 2 AND prior_runs >= 3 AND days_since_last_run <= 60

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

7,166

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

-28.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-21.6%

1,180 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H29-fresh-for-the-spring Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.011 on 7166 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H29-fresh-for-the-spring (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H29-fresh-for-the-spring: H29: fresh for the spring (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.