Hypotheses · seasonal · H30-hard-winter-campaign
H30: hard winter campaign
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.977 on 3082 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H30: hard winter campaign” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: jumps, March-April, six or more runs in the last 150 days. Over the top by spring.
The rule
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (3, 4) AND runs_150 >= 6Reads: race_type, month, runs_150
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (3, 4) AND runs_150 >= 6
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 3,082
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -16.4%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +31.0%
- 464 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H30-hard-winter-campaign Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.977 on 3082 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H30-hard-winter-campaign (broad): info
· importer
New idea H30-hard-winter-campaign: H30: hard winter campaign (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.