H32: early jumping error then back into it

Mechanism and rationale

An early jumping error last time (no slow start), got back into the race, beaten 5 lengths or less.

The rule

last_early_setback = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND jumping_errors_last3 <= 1

Reads: last_early_setback, last_recovered, last_jumping_error, last_slow_start, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, jumping_errors_last3

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_early_setback = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND jumping_errors_last3 <= 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(last_early_setback = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND jumping_errors_last3 <= 1) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "hurdle",
    "rule": "(last_early_setback = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND jumping_errors_last3 <= 1) AND (race_type = 'Hurdle')"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info hurdle · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

73

A/E

1.17

winners vs the prices

SP return

-1.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+20.3%

73 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 26.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H32-early-jumping-error-then-back-into-it Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [chase] AMBER A/E 1.405 on 35 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H32-early-jumping-error-then-back-into-it (hurdle): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H32-early-jumping-error-then-back-into-it (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H32-early-jumping-error-then-back-into-it (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H32-early-jumping-error-then-back-into-it: H32: early jumping error then back into it (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.