H35: eased last time

Mechanism and rationale

Eased when its chance had gone last time: the beaten distance is exaggerated.

The rule

last_eased = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1

Reads: last_eased, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_eased = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(last_eased = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "down in class",
    "rule": "(last_eased = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1) AND (race_class > last_race_class)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(last_eased = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,142

A/E

0.94

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-6.6%

1,137 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H35-eased-last-time Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [14/1 or shorter] NEGATIVE A/E 0.94 on 1142 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H35-eased-last-time (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H35-eased-last-time (down in class): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H35-eased-last-time (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H35-eased-last-time (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H35-eased-last-time: H35: eased last time (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.