Hypotheses · pace-at-the-jumps · IQ08-fast-into-its-obstacles-and-lost-ground
IQ08: fast into its obstacles and lost ground
best [broad] RED A/E 1.011 on 608 bets
Starts the thread “IQ08: fast into its obstacles and lost ground” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: last run top quarter for speed into the obstacles, bottom quarter for ground gained. Its jumping breaks down when it is asked to go quickly.
The rule
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_entry_speed_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25Reads: race_type, l_entry_speed_pct, l_lgj_pct
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_entry_speed_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 608
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -29.5%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -16.9%
- 608 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 13.3%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
IQ08-fast-into-its-obstacles-and-lost-ground Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 1.011 on 608 bets
· importer
import result for IQ08-fast-into-its-obstacles-and-lost-ground (broad): info
· importer
New idea IQ08-fast-into-its-obstacles-and-lost-ground: IQ08: fast into its obstacles and lost ground (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.