Hypotheses · appearance · IQ42-looked-laboured-but-kept-producing

IQ42: looked laboured but kept producing

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 13488 bets

Starts the thread “IQ42: looked laboured but kept producing” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: under pressure in the remark, with no mention of travelling well or of a strong finish, yet in the faster half of the finishers over both the middle and the final third, and beaten. A grinder that looks ordinary and keeps going.

The rule

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND last_travelled_well = 0 AND last_strong_finish = 0 AND l_mid_pct >= 0.5 AND l_late_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1

Reads: race_type, last_under_pressure, last_travelled_well, last_strong_finish, l_mid_pct, l_late_pct, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND last_travelled_well = 0 AND last_strong_finish = 0 AND l_mid_pct >= 0.5 AND l_late_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 13,488
A/E: 0.99; winners vs the prices
SP return: -22.4%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -3.9%; 13,437 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 13.5%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half6,0230.96

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ42-looked-laboured-but-kept-producing Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 13488 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ42-looked-laboured-but-kept-producing (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ42-looked-laboured-but-kept-producing: IQ42: looked laboured but kept producing (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.