Hypotheses · pulled-up-overlay · IQ61a-pulled-up-jumped-well-then-pulled-up-system, 14-1 or shorter
IQ61a: pulled up jumped well then pulled up system, 14 1 or shorter
best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.353 on 156 bets
Starts the thread “IQ61a: pulled up jumped well then pulled up system, 14 1 or shorter” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
[system, 14-1 or shorter] Jump Index in the top quarter of pulled-up horses for where it stood in its field (57th percentile or better). It was jumping well, so jumping was not why it stopped.
The rule
last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.57Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, sp_decimal, l_jump_index_pct
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.57
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 156
- A/E
- 1.35
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- +17.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +45.1%
- 156 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 17.9%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
IQ61a-pulled-up-jumped-well-then-pulled-up-system, 14-1 or shorter Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.353 on 156 bets
· importer
import result for IQ61a-pulled-up-jumped-well-then-pulled-up-system, 14-1 or shorter (broad): info
· importer
New idea IQ61a-pulled-up-jumped-well-then-pulled-up-system, 14-1 or shorter: IQ61a: pulled up jumped well then pulled up system, 14 1 or shorter (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.