Hypotheses · pulled-up-overlay · IQ62b-pulled-up-jumped-worst-then-pulled-up-all prices

IQ62b: pulled up jumped worst then pulled up all prices

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.106 on 334 bets

Starts the thread “IQ62b: pulled up jumped worst then pulled up all prices” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

[all prices] Jump Index in the bottom quarter of pulled-up horses for where it stood in its field (8th percentile or worse). The jumping fell apart.

The rule

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.08

Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, l_jump_index_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.08
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 334
A/E: 1.11; winners vs the prices
SP return: -46.5%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -24.5%; 332 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 5.1%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half2321.18

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ62b-pulled-up-jumped-worst-then-pulled-up-all prices Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.106 on 334 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ62b-pulled-up-jumped-worst-then-pulled-up-all prices (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ62b-pulled-up-jumped-worst-then-pulled-up-all prices: IQ62b: pulled up jumped worst then pulled up all prices (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.