IQ72: folds when challenged

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: folded under a late challenge in two or more earlier runs in today's code and has never resisted one. Travels and leads, and gives way when eyeballed.

The rule

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_folded_n >= 2 AND s_resist_n = 0

Reads: race_type, s_folded_n, s_resist_n

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_folded_n >= 2 AND s_resist_n = 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

4,212

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

-20.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-1.4%

4,183 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ72-folds-when-challenged Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 1.014 on 4212 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ72-folds-when-challenged (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ72-folds-when-challenged: IQ72: folds when challenged (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.