IQ74: pressure tested winner

Mechanism and rationale

Won last time after resisting a late challenge. The same 1 in the form book as any other winner, with something proved that the others have not.

The rule

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_resist = 1 AND l_pressed = 1

Reads: race_type, last_position, l_resist, l_pressed

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_resist = 1 AND l_pressed = 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

8,026

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

-14.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+1.4%

7,996 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 19.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ74-pressure-tested-winner Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 8026 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ74-pressure-tested-winner (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ74-pressure-tested-winner: IQ74: pressure tested winner (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.