IQ94: folded when challenged from the remarks

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: jumps; has folded when headed or challenged in an earlier jumps run and has never answered one.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_fold_n >= 1 AND t_resist_n = 0

Reads: race_type, t_fold_n, t_resist_n

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_fold_n >= 1 AND t_resist_n = 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,538

A/E

0.97

winners vs the prices

SP return

-20.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-0.4%

1,531 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ94-folded-when-challenged-from-the-remarks Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.972 on 1538 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ94-folded-when-challenged-from-the-remarks (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ94-folded-when-challenged-from-the-remarks: IQ94: folded when challenged from the remarks (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.