System: Stopped in its run, beaten two lengths or less

Mechanism and rationale

Trouble only costs a horse when it comes while the horse is making its move. One that was checked mid-run and still finished within two lengths ran better than the result. Trouble met when already beaten shows nothing. Twelve months of data only.

The rule

last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 2 AND coalesce(last_race_tilt, 0) < 0.2

Reads: last_momentum_interrupted, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, last_race_tilt

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Backing

bookmaker

Kind

system

Live from

2026-10-13

Matched

{
  "hypothesis_id": "H19-momentum-interrupted-beaten-narrowly",
  "similarity": 1,
  "variant": "not a flattered closer"
}

Published

true

Rules

• Last time out the horse met trouble in running while making headway, travelling well or challenging.
• It did not win, and was beaten two lengths or less.
• It was not a held-up horse flattered by a race that fell apart for the leaders.

Source

In-running remarks, October 2026

System id

momentum-interrupted-beaten-narrowly

Tier

none

Where

last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 2 AND coalesce(last_race_tilt, 0) < 0.2

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. hypothesis note SYS-momentum-interrupted-beaten-narrowly

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. New idea SYS-momentum-interrupted-beaten-narrowly: System: Stopped in its run, beaten two lengths or less (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.