System: Pulled up last time after being held up

Mechanism and rationale

A horse held up and then pulled up was looked after once its chance had gone, so the run took little out of it. The market reads the P beside its name as a disaster. Twelve months of data only.

The rule

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15

Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, sp_decimal

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Backing

price-sensitive

Kind

system

Live from

2026-10-13

Matched

{
  "hypothesis_id": "H36-pulled-up-after-being-held-up",
  "similarity": 1,
  "variant": "14/1 or shorter"
}

Published

true

Rules

• Last time out the horse was held up or raced in midfield, and was pulled up.
• It starts at 14/1 or shorter.

Source

In-running remarks, October 2026

System id

pulled-up-after-being-held-up

Tier

none

Where

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. hypothesis note SYS-pulled-up-after-being-held-up

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. New idea SYS-pulled-up-after-being-held-up: System: Pulled up last time after being held up (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.