System: Pulled up last time after jumping well

Mechanism and rationale

A held-up horse that was jumping better than most of its field and was still pulled up did not stop because of its jumping. Found by cutting the pulled-up system with measured jumping figures. Twelve months of data, 156 bets, and the two halves of the year disagree on how big the edge is. Unproven until its live record says otherwise.

The rule

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND last_jump_index_pct >= 0.57

Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, sp_decimal, last_jump_index_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

44e03c5511d873708f834137ae1b7d0cc363f3eae9a7e2582490fc82caf67b5c

Frozen

15 Oct, 01:00

Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Backing

price-sensitive

Kind

system

Live from

2026-10-15

Matched

{
  "hypothesis_id": "H36-pulled-up-after-being-held-up",
  "similarity": 0.75,
  "variant": "14/1 or shorter"
}

Published

false

Rules

• Last time out the horse was held up or raced in midfield, and was pulled up.
• On Jump Index it beat 57% or more of the rest of that field.
• It starts at 14/1 or shorter.

Source

Measured jumping figures, October 2026

System id

pulled-up-after-jumping-well

Tier

none

Where

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND last_jump_index_pct >= 0.57

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

• forward check refusederror

  · 15 Oct, 23:21

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:51

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

Lineage

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. Job 2112 finished

   16 Oct, 23:51 · engine:compute-1

2. forward result for SYS-pulled-up-after-jumping-well (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   16 Oct, 23:51 · engine:evaluator

3. compute-1 took job 2112 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   16 Oct, 23:51 · compute-1

4. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   16 Oct, 23:51 · engine:scheduler

5. Job 20 finished

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-2

6. forward result for SYS-pulled-up-after-jumping-well (forward check refused): error

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

7. compute-2 took job 20 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   15 Oct, 23:21 · compute-2

8. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

9. SYS-pulled-up-after-jumping-well Frozen → SHADOW import: followed forward from 2026-10-15, not shown on the site; from H36-pulled-up-after-being-held-up [14/1 or shorter]

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. SYS-pulled-up-after-jumping-well Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

11. New idea SYS-pulled-up-after-jumping-well: System: Pulled up last time after jumping well (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Shadow.